Professor of Finance at the University of Ghana Business School, Professor Godfred Bokpin, has cautioned that Ghana’s potential membership of the BRICS economic bloc should not be viewed as a substitute for the domestic reforms required to transform the country’s economy.
He said while joining BRICS could create new economic opportunities and deepen Ghana’s engagement with emerging economies, membership alone would not automatically improve the country’s economic fortunes.
Speaking on the Joy FM Super Morning Show on Thursday, October 8, during a discussion on Ghana’s plans to join BRICS, Prof. Bokpin said Ghana must continue to focus on building and managing a competitive domestic economy regardless of its international affiliations.
He noted that BRICS itself was still evolving and that several issues surrounding its structure and future direction remained subject to discussion.
“I think we should just bear in mind that BRICS is still evolving, even within the original founding members, in terms of the framework, where exactly this is heading towards, and all of that,” he said.
Prof. Bokpin stressed that Ghana should not expect membership to produce an immediate economic transformation.
“Merely joining BRICS necessarily does not transform your economy overnight, or even over a 15-year period,” he said.
“It is not a substitute for what you have to do in managing your own economy competitively, and all of that.”
BRICS presents economic opportunities
Despite his caution, Prof. Bokpin said he supported the government’s intention to pursue BRICS membership, arguing that the global economic balance was shifting and Ghana needed to position itself accordingly.
“If I look at it from an economic perspective, it’s a good move that the government plans to join BRICS. That is where the world is heading towards, and that is a fact,” he said.
He pointed to the growing economic influence of BRICS, noting that the combined economic output of its member and partner countries had become significant in the global economy.
“If you look at the commanding position of BRICS within the global economy today, the combined GDP of BRICS, especially across the 11 founding members, and then also the 10 partner countries today, actually exceeds the GDP of the G7 that we used to know,” he said.
According to Prof. Bokpin, BRICS countries account for a substantial share of global economic output and have strong growth prospects.
“It accounts for almost 40 percent of the global GDP. The BRICS member countries have higher growth potential today than literally any other economic bloc you can think about,” he said.
Global economic power shifting
Prof. Bokpin also cited long-term economic projections as evidence of the growing influence of emerging economies.
He said China was projected to remain the world’s largest economy by 2050, with the United States ranking second.
“It may interest you to know that by 2050, three out of the top five big economies globally will all be BRICS members,” he said.
He said the projected shift in the global economic order also provided context for growing tensions between the United States and China.
“In fact, by 2050, China will be number one, and the U.S. will be number two in terms of the global economic order,” he said.
“You can understand this also gives you a perspective as to the tension between the U.S. and China and all of that. It’s all playing out carefully within the global geopolitics.”
Looking further ahead, Prof. Bokpin said projections for 2075 suggested an even stronger presence of BRICS countries among the world’s largest economies.
He said four of the five largest economies projected for that period could be BRICS members.
“By 2075, the top five economies in the world measured in USD, actually there will only be one that will not be a BRICS member,” he said.
“So four out of the top five big economies by 2075, four of them will be BRICS members.”
Nigeria’s projected economic rise
Prof. Bokpin also highlighted Nigeria’s projected position among the world’s largest economies, saying its growth could be driven significantly by the private sector and major entrepreneurs.
He said projections indicated that Nigeria could rank among the world’s five largest economies by 2075.
“In fact, the projection is that by 2075, Nigeria will be in the top five. And this may surprise a lot of people,” he said.
He cautioned, however, that such long-term projections should not be treated as guaranteed outcomes.
“I’m not asking people to put on faith to believe in this,” he said.
According to Prof. Bokpin, Nigeria’s potential transformation could be driven by major entrepreneurs and the growth of its private sector rather than government alone.
“The understanding is that if you look at what Nigeria is doing, the transformation is going to come from big Nigerian entrepreneurs, billionaires, who have decided, and it’s not just Aliko Dangote,” he said.
Ghana must adapt to changing trade patterns
Prof. Bokpin said Ghana was already experiencing the growing influence of emerging economies, particularly China, despite not being a member of BRICS.
He argued that Ghana must recognise changing global trade patterns and position itself accordingly.
“So if you put all of that together, and we have no joint business, actually, but today, China has literally taken over our markets, whether you like it or not,” he said.
He noted the growing importance of the Ghana-China trade corridor compared with some of Ghana’s traditional trading relationships.
“So the traffic today is within the Ghana-China corridor as compared to our traditional import-oriented countries and all of that. So we need to just look at all of that,” he added.
Prof. Bokpin said these developments provided an economic basis for Ghana to consider closer engagement with BRICS, although he acknowledged that geopolitical and other considerations would also need to be assessed.
“So in terms of where the world is moving towards and all of that, it will look to me that it’s a good decision. Of course, I’m looking at it purely from an economics perspective,” he said.
“There may be geopolitical, there may be other considerations that would also have to come to the table and all of that.”
He nevertheless reiterated that Ghana should not expect BRICS membership alone to resolve its economic challenges.
“So specifically for Ghana, I think that merely joining BRICS would not necessarily transform our economy,” Prof. Bokpin said.
