Fitch Solutions has revised upwards Ghana’s current account surplus projection for 2026 to 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), up from its earlier estimate of 5.2%, on the back of a stronger-than-anticipated trade performance in the first half of the year.
The research division of Fitch Ratings said Ghana posted a merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion in the first six months of 2026, far higher than the US$700 million average recorded in the same period between 2016 and 2025.
Fitch Solutions attributed the impressive outcome to strong gold exports and increased crude oil shipments, which significantly boosted the country’s external accounts.
According to the firm, the H1 trade surplus exceeded its forecast, necessitating the upward review of its full-year outlook.” As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions stated.
The new forecast signals a stronger external position for Ghana this year, with export revenues providing major support for the current account.
Fitch Solutions, however, anticipates some softening in 2027, projecting a lower but still substantial current account surplus.
The projection highlights the crucial role of commodity exports, especially gold, in sustaining Ghana’s external strength and foreign exchange inflows.
The better-than-expected first-half trade performance also offers Ghana a bigger external cushion, though its durability will largely hinge on export performance and global commodity price trends.
For now, the revised 7.8% forecast represents a significant improvement over the previous outlook and reflects the robust showing of Ghana’s external sector in H1 2026.
