Fitch Solutions expects Ghana’s economy to stay largely protected from the consequences of the US–Iran conflict, thanks to strong gold prices and steady foreign exchange inflows from exports, according to a new analysis.
Even though global gold prices have fallen 14% since the conflict erupted in late February 2026—due to rising US yields, tighter monetary policy expectations, and a firmer dollar—the spot price of US$4,413 per ounce on March 27 remains nearly three times the 2015–2024 average of US$1,603 per ounce. Fitch’s Commodities team still forecasts gold to average US$4,600 per ounce this year, which would be the highest annual average ever recorded and 33.7% above the 2025 average of US$3,442 per ounce.
“We believe that Ghana’s economy will remain relatively insulated from the fallout of the US–Iran conflict as it benefits from elevated gold prices. Robust export-related forex inflows and Ghana’s broadly neutral net oil trade position will limit pressure on the external account and the cedi, while prior fiscal consolidation and the new gold royalty regime will keep fiscal strains contained,” the firm said.
As Africa’s biggest gold exporter, Ghana is set to receive large dollar inflows in the coming months, supported by an expected 7.1% rise in gold production, especially from the Bibiani, Chirano, and Namdini mines.
Fitch predicts gold export earnings will increase 12.9% to US$23.7 billion—equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, well above the 2010–2024 average of 0.9%. Meanwhile, Ghana’s oil and gas trade is forecast to stay roughly neutral, meaning the recent jump in global energy prices is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s current account balance.
