Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to decline by at least 16% during the 2026/2027 crop season, with the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) attributing the expected drop to adverse weather conditions, disease outbreaks and the crop’s natural production cycle.
In a response to questions from Reuters, the regulator said the forecast reflects the likely impact of El Niño weather conditions, excessive rainfall recorded in May and June this year, and the cocoa tree’s natural tendency to alternate between high- and low-yielding seasons.
According to COCOBOD, the outlook is particularly concerning in the Western and Western North regions, which together account for more than half of Ghana’s cocoa production.
The regulator noted that farmers in the two regions have recorded a low cherelle load—the number of young cocoa pods that survive to maturity—an indication of reduced yields expected during the upcoming season.
COCOBOD said the situation has been worsened by the spread of cocoa swollen shoot disease, ageing plantations and the increasing impact of illegal mining activities, commonly known as galamsey.
The illegal mining operations, the regulator explained, continue to destroy cocoa farms as agricultural land is taken over for mining activities.
The projection comes ahead of the new cocoa season, which begins in September, and follows warnings from farmers in the Western and Western North regions, who have reported significantly lower pod counts this year.
To mitigate the anticipated decline in production, COCOBOD said it has intensified interventions across cocoa-growing communities. These include the rehabilitation of farms affected by swollen shoot disease in the Western North Region, expanded nationwide insecticide and fungicide spraying programmes, and the reintroduction of a free fertiliser distribution scheme for the 2026/2027 crop year.
The expected decline in Ghana’s cocoa output mirrors broader challenges facing West Africa’s cocoa sector. Production forecasts for neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, have also been revised downward, with output expected to fall by more than 10% next season.
