On a quiet Wednesday last month, a Kenyan politician stopped for coffee after getting his hair cut in the western city of Kisumu.
Moments later, a group of hooded youths set upon Senator Godfrey Osotsi without warning – punching and kicking him, leaving him badly injured, stripping him of his phones and valuables before vanishing into the street.
The assault was captured on CCTV. Within hours, the footage was everywhere.
The police are still investigating but the senator said this was not a robbery. Rather, he alleged, it was politically motivated as he was asked by the attackers why he was not supporting the president’s re-election bid.
The nationwide outcry that followed the assault forced Kenya’s parliament to summon the country’s top security chiefs.
For many Kenyans, the attack felt less like a shocking outlier and more like a confirmation of something they had long feared – that the country was sliding, once again, toward an era of deadly political violence.
Kenya’s history of politically sponsored criminal gangs dates back to the early 1990s and the reintroduction of multiparty democracy. Unemployed youths have been hired by various politicians and turned into tools of electoral intimidation.
They were a major driver of the unrest surrounding the shocking nationwide violence that followed the 2007 election, which left about 1,500 people dead.
And the stage is now being set for a particularly tense electoral cycle even though the next nationwide vote is up to 15 months away.
Bearing a huge grudge over his 2024 impeachment and removal from government, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is planning to run for the presidency. In addition, there is an open split within one of the main parties.
This is all helping to raise the political temperature with attacks on politicians by hired youths – known locally as goons – becoming more brazen.
Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen acknowledged to a parliamentary committee that the government was struggling to contain the groups that he said had evolved from street-level outfits into “sophisticated and decentralised networks”.
Murkomen, who appeared alongside Kenya’s security chiefs, disclosed that more than 104 local criminal gangs were active in the country, many under the patronage of politicians
“The gangs are owned by political leaders who play a significant role in mobilising people. It is chaotic. An irresponsible leader is a threat to national security,” he said, without naming any names.
At least 300 suspects have been arrested, as the authorities intensified a crackdown against the criminal groups, with police recovering weapons and communication devices during the raids. However, no politicians were among those held.
Successive governments have attempted to ban such groups, yet the problem has persisted with gangs mutating, rebranding and reappearing under new names each electoral cycle.
They have developed into sophisticated organisations with a clear structure, a security source told the BBC.
The former deputy president appears to have been a target.
Since his impeachment, Gachagua has been subjected to a sustained pattern of violence, including being attacked by armed groups at churches over two dozen times. He and his allies have attributed the violence to state-sponsored criminal networks trying to derail his presidential bid.
For months, opposition leaders and civil society groups have accused police of either colluding with, or turning a blind eye to, organised gangs that descend on rallies armed with crude weapons.
In many cases, they say, the violence unfolds in the presence of police.
The death of veteran politician Raila Odinga last October has also triggered a sharp political realignment in Kenya, with his ODM opposition party splitting into two hostile camps divided over whether or not to support President William Ruto.
A 28-year-old man was shot dead when police clashed with supporters of the anti-Ruto faction at a rally in February, prompting the group to condemn what it described as “state-sponsored acts of violence by police and hired goons”.
Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura firmly denied reports that some of the criminal groups were state-sponsored.
“The use of criminal gangs to intimidate or silence individuals undermine our democracy and will not be tolerated. Anyone found financing, supporting, or engaging in such acts will be held fully accountable under the law,” he told the BBC.
It is not just opposition figures and events that are targeted.
In February, a senatorial aspirant aligned to the governing Kenya Kwanza alliance was attacked after a group of people stormed a church service in the western town of Kakamega and forcibly ejected her from the building.
Last November, by-elections in western and central Kenya were marred by widespread violence, with polling agents attacked, armed groups clashing during vote counting and police firing tear gas at voters.
“These incidents paint a troubling picture of a country where political rivalry increasingly spills into organised street violence executed by hired gangs operating with precision and impunity,” said Robert Chege, a security analyst.
Each attack, taken alone, might be explained away. But together, they sketch a country edging towards an abyss it has fallen into before and barely survived, observers warn.
“The worrying problem in Kenya is that this is now a near norm carried out by all major political parties. It is, to wit, a Kenyan culture, an epidemic,” wrote Prof Makau Mutua, a legal expert and adviser to Ruto.
A report last year from the state-funded National Crime Research Centre found hundreds of criminal gangs in operation, with more than 120 linked to politicians. These were no longer temporary formations but had become entrenched institutions within their communities, the report said.
Inspector General of Police Douglas Kanja told parliamentarians that the police were taking the matter seriously, adding that security agencies had already identified those behind the chaos.
“This issue of goons and guns is going to stop soon. We have clearly investigated. We have seen where they come from, who funds, who does what, who is the grassroots organiser and so forth,” Kanja added.
The interior minister addressed concerns regarding accusations of police inaction against gangs. He acknowledged problems in some instances, blaming “operational challenges”, including corruption and information leaks, noting that the ministry was taking all allegations of police complicity or inaction seriously.
Critics, however, argue that the government’s response has been inconsistent – strong in rhetoric but weak in execution.
Chege described Kenya’s security crisis as self-inflicted and sustained by political patronage networks and state systems “that thrive on violence and inequality”.
“The question is no longer who the goons are, but who sends them, funds them and protects them? The real architects of Kenya’s rising wave of organised violence remain in the shadows,” he added.
Ordinary Kenyans will hope that authorities can provide some of the answers before the violence has a chance to ratchet up ahead of general elections which have to take place by August next year.
