The Bank of Ghana is expected to further reduce its policy rate by about 150 basis points to 14%, according to analysts at IC Research.
The firm estimates that Ghana’s real policy rate currently stands at 12.2%, following recent disinflation and a nominal policy rate of 15.5%. While this suggests room for a more aggressive rate cut, IC Research believes the central bank is likely to proceed cautiously.
It cited ongoing global uncertainties, including rising energy prices and a strengthening US dollar, as key risks that could influence the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision.
“We expect the authorities to maintain a preference for a double-digit real policy rate, albeit with a rate-cut bias,” the firm noted, projecting a possible reduction of between 100 and 200 basis points, with a 150 basis point cut to 14% being the most likely outcome.
The MPC last reduced the policy rate to 15.5% in January 2026, down from 18%, as part of efforts to stimulate economic growth and respond to easing inflation.
The central bank attributed the decision to improved macroeconomic conditions, supported by tight monetary policy, fiscal consolidation and a build-up of foreign reserves.
Inflation has declined faster than expected in recent months, with growth also showing signs of strengthening, reinforcing expectations of a continued easing cycle.
