IC Research has projected a slight rise in inflation for March 2026, citing renewed cost pressures and supply-chain disruptions.
The firm forecasts a 60 basis points increase in annual inflation to 3.9% for March, while the month-on-month rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.8%.
According to its analysis, the anticipated uptick will be driven partly by the delayed impact of first-quarter utility tariff hikes, as well as rising global energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices have climbed above $83 per barrel, surpassing the $74.7 peak recorded in March 2025.
IC Research noted that higher energy costs are likely to push up prices for gas and other fuels, reduce the pace of transport-related price declines, and create upward pressure on non-food and overall inflation.
The firm also highlighted seasonal and supply-related factors, including the onset of the planting season and disruptions in cross-border tomato supply, which could reverse recent declines in vegetable and tuber prices and add pressure to food inflation.
Despite recent gains, IC Research believes Ghana’s disinflation trend is nearing its end, with the country entering a critical phase of maintaining price stability ahead of the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee decision on March 18, 2026.
It observed a shift in inflation dynamics in February, noting that for the first time since January 2025, food and non-food inflation moved in opposite directions—signalling emerging pressures beneath the headline figures.
Data for February 2026 showed that inflation declined to 3.3%, marking the 14th consecutive monthly drop. Food inflation fell sharply by 150 basis points to 2.4% year-on-year, with a monthly rate of 0.2%.
In contrast, non-food inflation rose by 30 basis points to 4.0% year-on-year, overtaking food inflation after both categories had converged in January.
IC Research further reported growing price pressures within the non-food category, with fewer sectors recording disinflation and more experiencing rising prices—an indication that inflationary risks may be building once again.
