The Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP) has raised concerns over what it describes as significant revenue leakages within Ghana’s petroleum sector, warning that more than 200 million litres of fuel cannot be accounted for between 2020 and 2025.
According to the institute, the unaccounted fuel volumes have resulted in tax revenue losses exceeding GH¢600 million, posing a serious threat to Ghana’s fragile fiscal recovery efforts.
In a statement dated May 10, Executive Director of the institute, Isaac Boadi, said findings from industry groups, oversight bodies and petroleum sector analyses all pointed to persistent weaknesses across the fuel supply chain.
“The emerging consensus across industry groups, oversight bodies and sector reports are clear: over 200 million litres of fuel cannot be accounted for, resulting in more than GH¢600 million in lost tax revenue,” the statement said.
The institute referenced findings from the Petroleum Product Analysis Report for 2025, the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), and other petroleum sector reports covering 2025 and 2026.
According to IERPP, weak monitoring systems at Ghana’s ports and across the petroleum distribution chain continue to create opportunities for revenue losses and fuel diversion.
The statement noted that the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies had recommended stronger oversight measures, including real-time fuel tracking systems, Automatic Tank Gauging technology, routine stock reconciliation and tighter monitoring of depot and refinery movements.
IERPP questioned why such mechanisms were allegedly no longer functioning effectively if similar systems had previously been implemented under Strategic Mobilisation Limited (SML).
Revenue Growth Amid Structural Weaknesses
Despite concerns about leakages, the institute acknowledged that Ghana had recorded strong nominal tax revenue growth in recent years.
According to data from the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA), tax revenue increased from GH¢43.9 billion in 2019 to GH¢153.6 billion in 2024.
The institute said revenue growth peaked at 49.3 per cent in 2023 and 35.8 per cent in 2024, while the GRA exceeded its 2024 revenue target by collecting GH¢153.6 billion against a target of GH¢146 billion.
However, IERPP noted that the gains remained uneven across revenue streams.
It stated that indirect taxes underperformed by 21.5 per cent despite stronger performances in direct taxes and customs revenue. Customs revenue alone reportedly rose from GH¢16.1 billion in 2021 to GH¢45.3 billion in 2024.
The institute further indicated that total revenue and grants for the first eleven months of 2025 fell short of expectations, reaching GH¢187.87 billion against a target of GH¢201.37 billion.
Domestic revenue and non-oil tax revenue also reportedly underperformed, with the latter missing its target by 4.5 per cent due to what the institute described as “persistent structural inefficiencies or leakages” in tax administration.
Although oil tax revenue exceeded expectations by 31.2 per cent, the institute expressed concern over a sharp decline in oil and gas receipts.
According to the statement, oil and gas receipts dropped to GH¢5.92 billion, missing targets by 64.2 per cent and declining by 66.6 per cent year-on-year.
IERPP described the trend as a “major fiscal concern.”
Ghana Cannot Sustain Revenue Leakages
The institute warned that Ghana’s economy could not sustain continuous revenue losses at a time when fiscal recovery efforts remain fragile.
Citing the World Bank’s 8th Ghana Economic Update, IERPP noted that Ghana’s tax collection averaged only 13.2 per cent of GDP between 2017 and 2021, significantly below the country’s estimated tax capacity of 21.2 per cent.
It argued that avoidable leakages within petroleum taxation, customs administration and domestic revenue mobilisation continue to weaken fiscal sustainability and undermine public service delivery.
The institute also referenced the 2024 Auditor-General’s report, which identified GH¢18.42 billion in irregularities involving public boards, corporations and statutory institutions.
IERPP called on government to move beyond reports and implement stricter enforcement mechanisms to ensure accountability within the revenue mobilisation system.
Seven Questions for Government
As part of its statement, the institute posed seven questions to government and revenue authorities, including what accounted for the strong revenue growth between 2019 and 2024 and why leakages persist despite digital reforms such as the Electronic Revenue Assurance System and the Integrated Customs Management System.
The institute also questioned the sharp decline in oil and gas receipts despite stronger oil tax performance and asked whether systemic leakages within customs operations, petroleum monitoring and domestic tax administration were being overlooked.
It further demanded accountability from officials, institutions and private entities linked to the unaccounted fuel volumes and alleged enforcement failures.
“Ghana must choose transparency over silence, enforcement over excuses, and public accountability over institutional delay,” the statement concluded.
