Ghana’s crude oil production has fallen for six straight years, dropping by nearly 48% since its 2019 peak and costing the country billions of dollars in potential revenue, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).
The report, authored by Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, describes the decline as a structural crisis driven by ageing oil fields, inadequate upstream investment and the absence of new petroleum agreements since 2018.
Crude oil production declined from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.30 million barrels in 2025. The Energy Commission projects output will fall further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, extending the decline into a seventh consecutive year.
“The decline is not attributable to one shock, but to several structural, operational, and policy failures compounding over an unusually long period,” the report stated.
The downturn has sharply reduced government petroleum revenues. According to IES, receipts fell by 43.3% from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025, reflecting lower production and a decline in the average realised crude oil price from US$86.12 to US$74.93 per barrel.
In the first half of 2025, crude production dropped 26% year-on-year to 18.42 million barrels, while petroleum receipts fell from US$840 million to US$370 million.
IES estimates Ghana forfeited more than US$16.5 billion in potential gross oil revenue between 2019 and 2025. It argues that with sustained drilling, new petroleum agreements and improved reservoir management, cumulative production could have been about 221 million barrels higher over the period.
The report attributes the decline primarily to the depletion of mature oil fields, limited reserve replacement and the failure to award new petroleum contracts since 2018. Although the Jubilee field remained Ghana’s largest producer in 2025 with 22.2 million barrels, output declined by more than 30%, partly due to a scheduled maintenance shutdown. IES noted that increased drilling under the Jubilee South East project in 2024 demonstrated that targeted investment can slow production declines.
Beyond lost revenue, the institute warned that falling crude output threatens domestic gas supplies for thermal power generation, increases reliance on imported fuels and exposes the economy to greater exchange-rate and global energy price risks. It also highlighted a more than 61% decline in revenues to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), compounded by a reduction in the corporation’s share of petroleum revenues from 30% to 15%.
The report further referenced findings by the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), which raised concerns over rising cash-call obligations on the TEN field and US$561.65 million in petroleum revenue linked to GNPC subsidiary Explorco that remains unaccounted for.
Government has acknowledged the production decline and outlined measures to reverse the trend. In the 2026 Budget Statement, it announced investment commitments exceeding US$3.5 billion, including a US$2 billion programme to drill 20 additional wells in the Jubilee and TEN fields and a US$1.5 billion memorandum of intent covering the Offshore Cape Three Points block. GNPC also plans to begin drilling in the Voltaian Basin in October 2026.
The government is also reviewing upstream fiscal and regulatory policies to attract new investment, while Parliament has approved extensions of Tullow Oil’s petroleum agreements for the Jubilee and TEN fields until the end of 2040.
IES is urging the government to resume competitive petroleum licensing rounds, accelerate planned drilling programmes and strengthen GNPC’s financial position. It also called for closer parliamentary oversight of planned upstream investments.
“The data show a structural crisis,” the report concluded. “Reversing it will require new licensing, accelerated investment, improved operational efficiency, strengthened institutional capacity, and diversified revenue management implemented with urgency.”
