The proposed takeover of Warner Bros by Paramount Skydance could significantly reshape Hollywood and the wider media landscape.
It’s far from a done deal – Paramount still needs approval from regulators.
But if it does go ahead, here’s how it could shake up things for viewers.
Streaming costs could change
Paramount is expected to merge its Paramount+ service with Warner Bros’ HBO Max to create what it hopes would be a must-have streaming service that can hold its own against competitors Netflix, Amazon and Disney.
Viewers would be able to enjoy a broader range of content with one single subscription, from current hits such as The Pitt, to classics like Casablanca, Star Trek, Friends and the Sopranos.
What it would mean for prices is less clear.
Initially, analysts say it is likely that people who currently pay for both services could get a cheaper overall deal.
But over time having a more compelling offer could allow Paramount to raise prices, while less competition between streamers could mean people pay more overall for their streaming subscriptions.
“There’d be just less competition,” says Tom Harrington, a TV analyst from Enders. “The ability there would be to charge a bit more.”
However, Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, says any increased costs would be limited by the rate charged by Netflix, which he calls the “price-setter in the market”.
But none of those changes are on the immediate horizon.
Under US President Donald Trump it is expected to be “full speed ahead” for regulatory approval, says Scott Wagner, head of the antitrust practice at the law firm Bilzin Sumberg.
However concern over consumer prices and harm to workers could lead state attorneys general to try to block the deal further down the line, he adds. California’s attorney general has already vowed a “vigorous” investigation.
So given the regulatory timeline and existing distribution deals, we are years away from any major change to the services currently offered to viewers.
A reprieve for cinemas but less content
Movie theatre operators and others in Hollywood had feared a Netflix takeover. It could have meant one of the last major studios – behind titles last year such as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, The Minecraft Movie and One Battle After Another – deserting the cinema.
But unlike Netflix, Paramount and Warner Bros still rely on ticket sales to bolster the returns on their movies, points out Hargreaves Lansdown’s Matt Britzman “which should mean fewer films being rushed straight to streaming”.
“That won’t reverse long-term trends in cinema attendance, but it may reduce the disruption that filmmakers feared under a Netflix-led model,” he says.
Enders’ Tom Harrington agrees a Paramount takeover is probably a “better outcome” for cinema.
But he warns that consolidation will likely lead to fewer films getting made, as happened after Disney bought Fox.
Indeed, Paramount is already in cost-cutting mode, after boss David Ellison merged it with his film studio Skydance last year. Many analysts are expecting further cuts, especially since Paramount took on debt to finance the deal.
“That will need to be paid off at some point,” says Quilter Cheviot’s Ben Barringer. “Having more debt means you’ve got more burden, and that means you’ve got less to spend on content.”
A Trump-friendly CNN?
If the deal moves forward, it would put another of America’s flagship news networks – CNN – under the control of the Ellison family, which has a friendly relationship with the White House.
That has already sparked alarm in the US among Democrats and media advocates, who fear it will lead to more cautious coverage of the Trump administration.
They point to the changes Ellison has made in recent months at the news network CBS, which he took over as part of the Paramount merger, such as naming someone to police bias at the network. His tenure has also included workforce reductions, naming of a new editor-in-chief known for opinion writing, and clashes with journalists over issues of editorial independence.
The Ellison family is already reported to have discussed changes to the network with President Donald Trump, who is known for his attacks on CNN. In December, he called for the channel to be sold, saying its leaders were either “corrupt or incompetent”.
“I don’t think CNN would become Fox News overnight,” says Seth Stern, chief advocate at the Freedom of the Press Foundation, noting that there are already several popular news outlets serving right-wing audiences. “But coverage could be softened, critiques of the Trump administration could be reduced, hosts that are known for being particularly critical… could be fired.”
Rodney Benson, a media professor at New York University, called the deal “concerning”, would leave America’s largest media companies further concentrated in the hands of conservatives. Many of those owners, including the Ellison family, have separate, non news-related business interests that depend on government contracts or regulation and are therefore particularly vulnerable to pressure, he adds.
“This is not just an ideological shift, it’s a threat to democracy and the rule of law,” he says.
One of the most important changes will be whom Ellison names editor-in-chief, he adds, a selection that will set the tone for what follows.
“He is going to make this choice knowing that Donald Trump is watching,” he says.
But YouTube remains the biggest disruptor
Just how successful the merger of two legacy media outlets that are both facing financial pressures would be, remains an open question.
That’s because the “overriding” threat to streaming services isn’t one another – it’s YouTube, says Harrington of Enders.
Half of the platform’s top-trending videos now more closely resemble traditional TV, including long-form interviews and game shows, positioning it as a direct competitor to ad-supported TV services.
At the same time that short-form video has eroded audiences for traditional media.
Staying competitive is “not just about being competitive with one another, it’s being competitive with short-form video and that’s sort of the direction you’ll see them going towards,” Harrington says.
BBC
