Global cocoa rates are set to tumble by over 50% in 2026 following unprecedented peaks in the last few years, based on the World Bank’s newest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The analysis projects cocoa costs will slide from roughly $7.80/kg in 2025 to about $3.80/kg in 2026, marking a 51.3% decrease, then rise marginally to nearly $4.20/kg in 2027.
The steep fall is tied to expectations that worldwide cocoa output will steadily rebound after acute deficits that pushed rates to all-time records during the previous two years.
The forecast appears in the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which foresees a general easing in beverage commodity costs.
The report indicates the beverage price index, covering cocoa and coffee, will decline notably in 2026 after climbing sharply in 2024 and 2025.Based on the estimates, cocoa was one of the products that saw exceptional price surges amid the recent supply squeeze.
Still, better farming conditions and a slow realignment of international supply networks are anticipated to relieve market tightness moving ahead.
Even with the anticipated fall, the document suggests cocoa rates could stay comparatively high versus long-term averages, highlighting ongoing instability in farm commodity markets.
For top cocoa growers like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together dominate global cocoa supply, the anticipated price drop could affect foreign exchange inflows and producers’ earnings if harvests recover strongly.
The report further observes that wider commodity markets will probably stay vulnerable to worldwide economic growth patterns, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disruptions that impact agricultural production.
