Fitch Ratings has projected that the Ghanaian government could extend temporary measures introduced to cushion consumers against rising petroleum prices if the fiscal burden remains manageable.
According to Fitch, the intervention is likely to continue if the monthly cost stays below 0.1% of GDP and can be offset through savings in other areas of government expenditure.
The projection was contained in the agency’s latest country assessment report on Ghana, in which Fitch also upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘B-’ to ‘B’, with a Positive Outlook.
The rating agency noted that government may be compelled to maintain the relief measures because of concerns over the impact of rising fuel prices on inflation.
Government’s Fuel Relief Measures
On April 16, 2026, the government announced temporary interventions aimed at shielding consumers from increasing fuel prices driven by higher crude oil prices on the international market.
Under the policy, the state absorbed GH¢2 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol.
The measures took effect on April 16 and were expected to last for one month, meaning they are due to expire on May 16, 2026.
At the time, Government Communications Minister Felix Kwakye Ofosu said the intervention was introduced in response to sharp increases in global crude oil prices, which had pushed up ex-pump fuel prices locally and affected transportation costs and wider economic activity.
“Government remains committed to maintaining price stability, protecting livelihoods, and supporting Ghana’s economic recovery in the face of external shocks,” the statement said.
Global Oil Prices and Fuel Outlook
Crude oil prices have begun rising again on the international market following reports that US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with a proposed peace arrangement involving Iran.
The development has pushed Brent crude prices to around $105 per barrel.
Petroleum prices in Ghana are expected to undergo another review from May 16, 2026, with indications of possible increases if global price pressures persist.
Petrol prices have already increased by between 0.10% and 0.51% per litre, while diesel prices have risen by nearly 6.77%. Prices of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) are also projected to increase by between 7.24% and 10.41%.
Industry analysts say the expected LPG increases reflect delayed effects from the current tender arrangement, which had previously softened the impact of earlier price hikes.
Fitch’s Outlook on Ghana’s Economy
Fitch said inflation is expected to rise gradually toward the end of the year due to increasing oil prices.
However, the agency maintained that inflation should continue easing on an annual average basis through 2026 and 2027.
“We anticipate Bank of Ghana will remain prudent and pause its easing cycle to prevent inflation risks from materialising, after a cumulative 1,400 basis-point monetary policy rate cut between July 2025 and March 2026, to 14%,” Fitch stated.
On Ghana’s debt position, the agency projected that public debt would decline further to 46% of GDP by 2027, below its forecast median of 51% for countries rated ‘B’.
“This follows a 21 percentage-point fall in 2025 driven by a sharp appreciation of the cedi and robust fiscal consolidation,” the report added.
Fitch also forecast strong economic growth through 2027, projecting average GDP growth of 5%, supported by gold mining, improved consumer confidence, easing inflation and lower borrowing costs.
The agency further projected that Ghana’s current account surplus would remain strong in 2026 after recording a historic surplus of 8.2% of GDP in 2025, largely supported by high global gold prices.
