Ghana’s economy is expected to expand by 4.8% in 2026, according to the World Bank’s latest Africa Economic Update released on April 8. The projection aligns with the government’s estimate outlined in the 2026 budget, but signals a moderation compared to the stronger 6% GDP growth recorded in 2025.
While the specific drivers of the anticipated slowdown remain unclear, government officials have previously indicated a cautious outlook for 2026, citing potential external pressures likely to weigh on economic performance.
On inflation, the World Bank projects Ghana will end 2026 at 9%, slightly above the 8% target set by Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson. Despite this, inflation is still expected to remain within single-digit territory by year-end.
As of March 2026, inflation stood at 3.2%, though analysts suggest it may rise in the coming months before gradually easing. External factors—particularly developments in the Middle East—have already contributed to increases in global petroleum prices, posing upside risks to inflation.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is projected at 4.1% in 2026, unchanged from 2025. However, the World Bank warns that the region’s recovery from recent global shocks is losing momentum, with growth forecasts revised downward by 0.3 percentage points from its October 2025 outlook.
Domestic demand continues to underpin growth across the region, supported by private consumption and investment, relatively accommodative monetary policies, and improving external conditions. A weaker U.S. dollar has also helped ease inflationary pressures and bolster household incomes.
Additionally, elevated prices for key commodities such as cocoa and coffee boosted revenues in 2025 and are expected to strengthen fiscal and external balances in resource-rich economies.
Nevertheless, mounting challenges—including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high debt-servicing costs, and persistent structural constraints—are expected to weigh on growth and limit job creation. The World Bank highlighted that risks have intensified following recent escalations in the Middle East conflict, including attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to global shipping routes.
