The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upwards its growth projection for Ghana, now expecting the economy to expand by 5.7% in 2026.
The new figure, published in the Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, is up from the 4.6% it projected in April.
The upgrade was announced on October 13 during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
The IMF’s latest forecast is higher than the 4.8% growth target set by government in the 2026 Budget.
The Fund, however, expects growth to slow slightly to 5.2% in 2027.
The report represents a 1.1 percentage point increase over its earlier estimate and signals improved confidence in Ghana’s economic recovery.
Inflation expected to fall further
The IMF has also cut its inflation outlook for Ghana. It now sees end-year inflation falling to 4.8%, down sharply from its April forecast of 7.9%. The new projection is within the Bank of Ghana’s target of 8% plus or minus 2%, and comes after inflation eased to 5.2% in September.
If achieved, Ghana will record single-digit inflation at year-end for the second year running, after achieving the same feat in 2025.
The Fund said lower inflation should help support household incomes and business planning, but noted that lasting stability will be key.
Stronger performance, but risks remain
The Fund attributed the brighter outlook to fiscal consolidation, improved spending efficiency and strong export earnings, especially from gold, which has boosted the country’s external position.
Ghana’s economy grew by 6.0% in the second quarter of 2026, with first-half growth averaging 6.2%, according to the Ghana Statistical Service.
Despite the positive momentum, the IMF cautioned that heavy dependence on commodities leaves Ghana vulnerable to global price swings and urged faster diversification of exports to secure long-term resilience.
Sustaining the recovery, it added, will require fiscal discipline and strong domestic activity.
Global outlook
Globally, the IMF expects growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with inflation at 4.7% and 4.1% respectively. It warned that geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, high debt levels and uncertainty around artificial intelligence investments could weigh on global growth.
