The Founding President of UP Tradition Institute, Dr. Razak Kojo Opoku, has cautioned against over-reliance on opinion polls, stating that it can keep candidates or parties in opposition forever.
In a statement issued by Dr. Opoku and copied to the Ghanaian RADAR newspaper, highlights key facts about presidential elections in Ghana since 1960, underscoring the importance of electoral performance.
Notably, he recounts that several presidential candidates have won elections on their first attempt, including Nkrumah in 1960, Busia in 1969, Limann in 1979, Rawlings in 1992, and John Mahama in 2012.
That trend, he said, underscored the significance of a candidate’s electoral performance rather than their popularity in opinion polls.
Dr. Opoku also pointed out in his statement that sitting Vice-Presidents who have contested presidential elections have had varying degrees of success.
For instance, he said, President John Dramani Mahama won in 2012, while Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia lost in 2024.
Against this backdrop, Dr. Opoku issued a wake-up call to New Patriotic Party (NPP) leaders to re-strategise and refocus their efforts towards winning future elections.
According to him, this disparity highlights the need for parties to focus on developing effective electoral strategies rather than relying solely on opinion polls, he averred.
“Over-reliance on opinion polls can be misleading and detrimental to a party’s chances of winning,” Dr. Opoku warned.
“It’s essential to focus on electoral performance and develop strategies to improve our chances of success.” He emphasized that NPP’s defeat in 2024 was the worst result ever witnessed since Ghana became a Republic in 1960, and that the party needs to learn from its mistakes to stage a stronger comeback in 2028.
Dr. Opoku concluded by stressing the need for NPP to reflect on its performance and develop a winning strategy for 2028. “We have a lot of work to do to bounce back stronger,” he said.
“It’s not about emotions and blind loyalty to aspirants. Real work is required for our comeback in 2028.”
Below is the full statement
Over-reliance on Opinion Polls Always Keep Candidates or Parties in Opposition Forever: Facts about Presidential Elections in Ghana since 1960
Ahead of becoming a Republic, the first presidential election in Ghana was held on 27th April 1960.
1. Nkrumah won his first attempt in 1960 with 89.07%.
2. Busia won his first attempt in 1969 with 58.33%
3. Limann won his first attempt in 1979 with 61.98% after run-off.
4. Rawlings won his first attempt in 1992 with 58.40%.
5. John Mahama won his first attempt in 2012 with 50.70%.
Therefore, it is absolutely FALSE to say that no candidate has won the presidential elections in Ghana on the first attempt.
Performance of Vice-Presidents Who contested for the First Time with an Incumbent Government
1. Atta Mills contested the 2000 presidential election when NDC was in government. He polled 44.54% in the 1st round and 43.10% after the run-off with Parliamentary Seats of 92 out of 200.
NPP had 99 Parliamentary seats.
Professor Atta Mills was the first sitting Vice-President to contest presidential election in Ghana and he did very well pushing the election to 2nd round and eventually securing 92 Parliamentary Seats, competing fairly against the 99 Parliamentary Seats of NPP won in 2000 general election.
Atta Mills did extremely well for the NDC in the 2000 presidential election because:
(a). NDC had been in power for 8 years.
(b). Mills was a Vice-President to Rawlings for ONLY one term, from 1996 to 2000.
(c). NDC was fully characterized by heavy divisions, apathy, and exiting of several leaders because of the unpopular decision of the Swedru Declaration by Rawlings.
2. John Mahama contested the 2012 presidential election when NDC had been in government for one term from 2009-2012, and he won convincingly with 50.70% and 148 Parliamentary Seats out of 275 Seats, while NPP managed to secure 122 Parliamentary seats.
John Mahama was the second sitting Vice-President to have contested a presidential election and won on his first attempt.
3. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the third sitting Vice-President to have contested a presidential election in 2024 after Mills and John Mahama respectively in 2000 and 2012.
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia polled 41.75% (275 out of 276 declared Constituencies) and 88 Parliamentary Seats with Ablekuma North Constituency still pending. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia served as a sitting Vice-President for 8years. He was also well marketed for 16years since 2008 unlike Professor Atta Mills who was a sitting Vice-President for 4years (1996-2000) and marketed as a Running-Mate for only 4years from 1996 to 2000, and John Mahama who was sitting Vice-President for 3years (2009-2012) and marketed as a Running-Mate for 4years (2008-2012).
However, John Mahama polled 56.42% (275 out of 276 declared Constituencies) with an unprecedented and historic parliamentary seat of 183 with Ablekuma North still pending.
Would the outcome of Ablekuma North move Mahama to 57% and Dr. Bawumia to 38.2% as alleged by some critics? We would wait for that official determination by the Electoral Commission of Ghana.
From the aforementioned data, it is very authoritative and essentially profound to conclude that both Professor Atta Mills, and John Mahama PERFORMED BETTER than Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in presidential elections as sitting Vice-Presidents:
1. Mills lost 2000 and 2004 presidential elections with respective votes difference of 881,139 and 673, 706.
2. John Mahama lost 2016 and 2020 presidential elections with respective votes difference of 984,570 and 517,405.
3. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia lost the 2024 presidential election with votes difference of 1, 714,179(275 out of 276 Declared Constituencies).
This is the first time a ruling Party has lost with such margin since 1960.
Even if you compared the result of 1, 714,179 to the performance of NPP in 1992 and 1996, it means that in terms of REAL FIGURES (not percentages):
1. Professor Albert Adu Boahen performed better in 1992 than Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in 2024.
Albert Adu Boahen in 1992 lost with a vote difference of 1,118, 371, far less than Dr. Bawumia’s loss of 1, 714,706(that is, a difference of 595, 808 votes).
2. John Agyekum Kufuor performed better in 1996 than Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in 2024.
John Agyekum Kufuor in 1996 lost with a vote difference of 1, 264, 880, far less than Dr. Bawumia’s loss of 1, 714,179(that is, a difference of 449, 299 votes).
For NPP to win or improve its performance in 2028, a lot of proper thinking, strategies, absolute unity and right leadership from Bottom-Top are required. It should be about the interest of the Party at the detriment of individual presidential ambitions.
Performance of Candidates Who Contested for the First Time as Opposition Leaders
1. Professor Albert Adu Boahen contested in 1992 Presidential election with 30.29% and 0 Parliamentary Seats.
Due to the dissatisfaction with ballot rigging in the 1992 presidential election, Professor Adu Boahen and NPP boycotted the 1992 Parliamentary election.
Professor Albert Adu Boahen was defeated by John Agyekum Kufuor in the presidential primary of NPP ahead of 1996 general election largely due to his poor performance of 30.29% and 0 Parliamentary Seats in 1992.
2. John Agyekum Kufuor contested the 1996 presidential election with 39.67% (approximately 40%) and 61 Parliamentary Seats out of 200 Seats.
John Agyekum Kufuor was able to defeat Nana Akufo-Addo and others in 1998 ahead of 2000 general election largely due to his significant average performance of 39.67% and 61 Parliamentary Seats in 1996.
Therefore, it is absolutely ridiculous and highly unprofessional to compare ‘Opposition Defeat’ Data (1992 & 1996) in percentage preference to ‘Incumbent Defeat’ Data (2024) in percentage preference.
Using the percentage data of 2024 defeat of NPP (party in government) to correlate with the percentage defeat data of NPP in 1992(party in opposition for 20years after Kofi Abrefa Busia was overthrown in a military coup in 1972), and 1996 (party in opposition for 24years after Kofi Abrefa Busia was overthrown in a military coup in 1972) is a very dishonest way of matching data.
Again, candidates, Albert Adu Boahen and John Agyekum Kufuor contested against Jerry John Rawlings, a military President of 11years who had just rebranded himself as a Civilian Democrat prior to 1992 & 1996 elections coupled with an inexperienced Electoral Commission of Ghana.
Performance of Candidate Who Contested the First Time Without Being a Sitting Vice-President
Nana Akufo-Addo is the only candidate who has contested a presidential election for the first time without being a sitting President unlike Rawlings in 1992, and a sitting Vice-President unlike Professor Mills in 2000, John Mahama in 2012, and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in 2024, though his Party was in government for 8 years.
Nana Akufo-Addo contested the 2008 presidential election with 49.13% in the first round, and 49.77% after run-offs. Nana Akufo-Addo lost the 2008 general election with a difference of ONLY 40,586 votes. This is a defeat but with dignity, glory, and honour for the Elephant Family.
However, Professor Mills in 2000, lost the general election with a difference of 881,139 votes.
Akufo-Addo had 107 Parliamentary Seats out of 230 Seats, while NDC had 116 Seats after 2008 general election.
As an opposition leader, Nana Akufo-Addo polled 47.74% in 2012 presidential election with Parliamentary Seats of 122 out of 275 Seats. Mahama had 50.70% with 148 seats. This was a highly competitive election in 2012.
Nana Akufo-Addo once again lost the 2012 presidential election with a difference of 325,863 votes and 5-4 majority ruling by Supreme Court.
Despite, the narrow defeats of Nana Akufo-Addo in 2008 and 2012 general elections, Nana Akufo-Addo was subjected to internal presidential primaries in 2010 and 2014 respectively, ahead of the 2012 and 2016 general elections.
In 2016, Nana Akufo-Addo had 53.72% with 169 Parliamentary Seats out of 275 Seats. John Mahama had 44.53% with 106 Parliamentary Seats.
Nana Akufo-Addo was able to represent NPP thrice based on his electoral performances in 2008 & 2012.
Nana Akufo-Addo defeated John Mahama in 2016 with a difference of 984,570 votes.
In 2020, Nana Akufo-Addo had 51.30%. with 137 Parliamentary Seats out of 275. John Mahama had 47.36% with 137 Parliamentary Seats.
Nana Akufo-Addo further defeated John Mahama in 2020 with a difference of 517,405 votes.
Based on electoral performances, it is, therefore, 100% Factual and Accurate to conclude
2024 general election defeat of NPP is the WORST RESULT ever witnessed since Ghana becoming a Republic in 1960.
Conclusion
Some people have argued that there is a transfer of leadership among rival contestants. That is absolutely a half-truth because:
1. Rawlings contested with Adu Boahen in 1992 but handed over to Kufuor in 2001. Rawlings contested against both Adu Boahen and Kufuor in 1992 and 1996 respectively.
2. Atta Mills contested against Nana Akufo-Addo in 2008 but unfortunately handed over to John Mahama in 2012.
Since 1992, the ONLY periods that rival candidates transferred power among themselves were seen in:
(a). 2008, from Kufuor to Mills after competing with each other for 2000 & 2024 presidential elections.
(b). 2016, from Mahama to Akufo-Addo after competing with each other for 2012 & 2016 presidential elections.
(c) 2024, from Akufo-Addo to Mahama after competing with each for 2012 and 2020 presidential elections.
The realistic argument is that, in 2028, should John Mahama compete with Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia for Mahama to hand over power to Dr. Bawumia after the contest?
Leading NPP or NDC to a general election comes with Internal Contest. Presidential candidates who performed even better in previous elections were subjected to internal presidential primaries.
Based on Data, it is not about Familiarity of the face of the Presidential Candidate or the number of times a Candidate is presented for an election, it is rather about the ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE of the Candidate in every election cycle that matters.
NPP, we have a lot of work to do to bounce back stronger for 2028 and beyond. It is not about emotions and blind loyalty to aspirants. Real work is required for our comeback in 2028.
#HappyRepublicDay
#NPPshallredeemitselfin2028andbeyond
…. Signed….
Dr. Razak Kojo Opoku
Founding President of UP Tradition Institute.
