S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Ghana’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook, citing improving economic conditions alongside lingering fiscal and external risks.
The agency noted that stronger economic growth and increased export volumes—particularly from gold—have boosted foreign currency reserves, helping to stabilise the country’s external position. It added that recent fiscal reforms and tighter expenditure controls are expected to keep budget deficits more contained compared to the period leading up to Ghana’s debt crisis in late 2022.
Despite these improvements, S&P cautioned that Ghana remains exposed to global shocks, including tensions in the Middle East, which could drive up fuel and transport costs and trigger higher inflation. Such developments, it warned, may also raise government borrowing costs and weaken investor confidence.
Ghana’s external position has strengthened significantly, supported by favourable commodity prices and strong export earnings. The country recorded a current account surplus exceeding $9 billion in 2025, while gross international reserves rose to record levels. However, S&P warned that this progress could reverse if global prices for key exports such as gold, cocoa, and oil decline.
The report also highlighted progress in Ghana’s debt restructuring programme, noting that the government has completed or reached agreements in principle on most of its targeted debt. This has helped ease immediate financing pressures and contributed to improved macroeconomic stability.
However, challenges remain. S&P pointed to high debt servicing costs, which are expected to consume a substantial share of government revenue in the coming years. It also raised concerns about structural weaknesses in public financial management and the risk of fiscal slippages, particularly during election periods.
Inflation, while easing from recent highs, is projected to rise moderately in 2026 due to external pressures. The Ghanaian cedi has also shown signs of stability after previous volatility, supported by improved foreign exchange inflows.
Looking ahead, S&P indicated that Ghana’s rating could be upgraded if the government sustains fiscal discipline, reduces debt servicing burdens, and strengthens external buffers.
However, the agency warned that any slowdown in reforms, renewed fiscal slippages, or setbacks in the debt restructuring process could place downward pressure on the country’s rating.
